Timing markets is a tough thing, even when it comes to real estate. A couple of years back most of the national media and their “experts”, and everyone else, were saying that we were in a local real estate bubble about to burst. I didn’t particularly mind, as we were buying a home to live in for the long haul, so the short term fluctuations don’t really matter in that situation, even if buying right before a pop might sting a little on paper.
Less than two years later, the house next door which is more or less identical with a little lower standard sold for a 40% increase compared to what we bought it for. These days all you can read about is that nobody can see the price growth in the close to medium future Of course, the price increase matters as little as a hypothetical decrease would have done to us, because we’re still owning to live.
The point is rather to show that if we had followed the conventional wisdom at the time, and waited for a bubble to pop, we wouldn’t even be close to be able to afford what we bought two years back. Instead we bought something we could comfortably afford at the time. Today, we wouldn’t have been able to afford the same unit. In other words, timing markets is a difficult exercise, and the same goes for real estate.